How to Predict Success

When something is a clear success, all pundits elbow each other out of the way to say “I knew it. I saw it coming a mile away.”

Did they, though?

Let’s revisit the story about Fortnite, the game.

Did you know that Fortnite was almost cancelled - not just once, but at least three times during the early stages of its creation?

Yes, Fortnite.

The runaway success.

One of the most played games on the planet.

Approximately 400 million registered players.

$5.8 billion revenue in 2021 alone.

It almost never came to be.

Before it became a cultural phenomenon, Fortnite was a troubled project that went through significant staff upheaval. It was just one of the fledging prototypes the designers and engineers play around with, in hope that some could become a cool game one day.

Success is as difficult to explain as failure.

Innovators try interesting things and hope to catch a cresting wave 🌊

Sometimes it works, sometimes not.

The secret is, no one really knows 🤫

If you're having a hard day, and nothing is going the way you want it to, remember that story.

Keep trying.